OVERVIEW

Forecaster Ecosa has an extensive network of contacts that enable us to tackle many diverse investigations, and where necessary, generate its own estimates of market structures and statistics.

Amongst our early warning predictions has been the February 1995 increase in interest rates, the nominal stability of the rand against the US dollar following the Financial Rand abolition, the devaluation of the Yen after the July 1995 elections, and the recovery in the rand during 1997, and the errors on the Reserve Bank’s net gold exports in 1996.

Forecaster Ecosa was the only economic consultancy who forecast a 100 basis point cut in the repo rate in June 2001, and in March 2002 was the only consultancy to forecast a rand below R10/US$1 in March 2003.

In February 2007 Forecaster Ecosa warned clients that a sub-prime “Titanic” was about to sink American and European banks.

This was well before central banks had to take initial extreme measures in September 2007.

We also warned that June 2008 was probably the top of the upward phase in the South African business cycle. The South African Reserve Bank said in its September 2009 Quarterly Bulletin that December 2007 was the upper turning point.

In March 2021 we forecast that South Africa would probably be able to achieve growth of 5% or higher in 2021 at a time when the Beeld consensus forecast was 3.8% and the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) was also expecting 3.8%. By the time of the September 2021 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) the SARB moved above our forecast of 5.1% to 5.3%, but then scaled that back to 5.2% at the MPC November 2021 meeting.

We also expected the MPC to increase the repo rate at its November 2021 meeting even though many economists argued it was too early to start the process of monetary policy normalisation. We expect this process of normalisation to continue in 2022.

Monitoring and analysis are ultimately aimed at turning opportunities and forecasts into profitable strategies and realities.

Recent special reports include a country risk analysis on an Asian country, an investigation into the structure of the South African used car market, the prospects for the global construction industry and a transport study. We can also advise on risk management of foreign exchange and interest rate exposure.

Forecaster Ecosa has undertaken special in-depth surveys for clients in a variety of fields. We are able to assist with special projects, exploring new markets, or commenting on trends and factors in your company’s fields.

Forecaster Ecosa has access to an extensive database so that relatively obscure historical data is just a phone call away.

Forecaster Ecosa has extensive experience in scenario planning and “out of the box” thinking. This approach enables companies to take a longer-term view of the environment and their response to it.

Since inception we have acquired many blue chip corporate clients, in South Africa and overseas, who subscribe to a variety of our services.

Some of our clients include: